In this article, we will discuss Ethereum Fundamental analysis, Network analysis, Technical analysis and future price prediction for 2020.
There is a lot of investment focus is going on for bitcoin because of Upcoming Halving, But we should not forget that ETHEREUM is also going through an important transition from Proof of work to proof of stake consensus.
World’s second-largest cryptocurrency project ETHEREUM is currently using Proof of Work consensus protocol for coin issuance and transaction validation. Proof of work requires High computing usage to issue coins, and verify the transaction and store them on the blockchain network. Proof of stake emerged as better alternative to Proof of work consensus algorithm in recent years. Few Ethereum competitors – EOS,TRON & Tezos are also using Proof of stake based protocol.
Proof of stake
Satoshi Nakatomi introduced proof of work consensus to solve the double-spending problem to achieve decentralized and distributed payment systems. The second generation of cryptocurrency projects from Zcash to Ethereum adopted proof of work mechanism for coin creation and validation on the blockchain network. Security was the major advantage to use proof of work-based consensus protocol, but they are slow as compare to traditional payment systems – Paypal and visa.
Peercoin was the first cryptocurrency that introduced a new consensus protocol called proof of stake to the world in late 2015.
Proof of stake definition According to Wikipedia–
“Proof of stake (PoS) is a type of consensus algorithm by which a cryptocurrency blockchain network aims to achieve distributed consensus.”
In 2017, Ethereum Founder, Vitalik Buterin revealed his plan to switch from Proof of work to proof of stake consensus protocol to tackle the speed and scalability problems. Ethereum (ETH) co-founder Vitalik Buterin declared that future blockchains with sharding based on proof-of-stake (PoS) will be “thousands of times more efficient” in a lengthy Twitter thread posted on Dec. 10.
Fundamental Analysis
Last year, ETEHREUM Foundation released a detailed roadmap of ETH 2.0 phases on ethhub, ETHEREUM also completed two hard forks Constantinople & Instanbul and now entered into Phase0 of Serenity Roadmap. The next step for ETHEREUM is to launch Beacon Chain: It’s when Staking will also be launched on the main network. According to last Ethereum development update – to become a validator on Ethereum Proof of stake Blockchain – One needs to hold 32 ETH and swap them for ETH2(Token for ETH 2.0 blockchain).
According to recent news 22,000 accounts registered as validators on one of the Proof of stake Testnet.
Ethereum foundation could release details about Phase 0 – Beacon chain and staking launch in upcoming months with requirements to become validators and operators. Once these updates will be released by them then I believe More people will rush to buy 32 ETH as soon as they can to become validators on ETH 2.0 Chain. There is an upcoming Retail Staking Rush which is currently brooming. The upcoming staking Rush will create a huge demand for ETH, and eventually, it will help ETHUSD price to reach new highs – possibly higher than 1000$ this year.
Network Analysis (Update – 15 February 2020)
Total addresses
Total With Balance
30-Day Average – 47.86m addresses
30-Day High – 48.39m addresses
30-Day Low – 47.4m addresses
Number of Transactions
7-Day Average – 694.91k txs
7-Day High – 778k txs
7-Day Low – 606.29k txs
Transaction Volume
7-Day Average – 2.27m ETH
7-Day High – 3.53m ETH
7-Day Low – 1.51m ETH
Hash Rate
30-Day Average – 158.34 TH/s
30-Day High – 165.43 TH/s
30-Day Low – 153.67 TH/s
Technical Analysis
ETHUSD Price cycle as compare to BTCUSD Price cycle
When comparing with ETHUSD with BTCUSD on Monthly Chart, We can find ETHUSD is following the first price cycle of BTCUSD in which Bitcoin started next wave at 190$ after a brief drop from 1170$. Bitcoin took almost two years to retest previous all time high at 1170$ in 2017.
In my opinion, the ETHUSD price has found a bottom around at 80$ in Dec’18, and the price is now marching above 170$. I am expecting ETHUSD to retest 1000$ in 25 months from the month it had found a bottom for this price cycle. Ethereum could reach 1000$ in anywhere in between November or December – 2020.
ETHUSD – Daily technical Analysis
ETHUSD is marching rally with Bitcoin lately, ETHUSD is now trading close 200 MA on a daily timeframe. Bitcoin had already broken above 200MA, expecting ETHUSD to break above this resistance soon. Once ETHUSD price breaks above 175$-200MA Resistance then ETH could restest 200$ in the next few days, and 236$ after a successful break above 200$.
MACD is also showing a strong sign of bullish continuation, after a bullish crossover yesterday.
Support: 156$, 160$
Resistance: 200$, 236$
ETHUSD – Weekly Technical Analysis
On the weekly timeframe, ETHUSD had a bullish crossover last week, and the price managed to close last week’s candle above 21MA – that is bullish.
The next key resistance to breaking at a weekly timeframe is 50MA at 186$, and 199$. I am expecting the ETHUSD price to test 200$ before the end of this week.
Conclusion
Because of ETH 2.0 Launch, Fundamentals and technicals both are favor with bulls this time around. The price prediction for Ethereum in 2020 is 1000$.
Update #1 – 15 February 2020
Ethereum broke out above 236$ and 270$ Resistance and currently trading above 280$ on all exchanges. Next resistance to break is at 336$, Once Ethereum break above said resistance, It could go parabolic from there and Ethereum price could reach 450$ in few days.
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